Taking Stock in the ACC

Cam Boozer has lived up to lofty expectations as one of the frontrunners for NPOY (Photo Credit: ESPN)

We’re about 1/3 of the way through conference play, so this feels like a good time to take a look at where each team stands and how they’re trending, both currently and relative to preseason expectations. The ACC as a whole is much improved this year, which has made this more fun to write than in years past!

Boston College (Trending: Down)

This piece will run in alphabetical order, which allows us to get the ugly out of the way quickly. Earl Grant had a big win in the offseason by holding on to 2025 All-ACC Honorable Mention guard Donald Hand Jr., but he has regressed pretty significantly across the board which has been detrimental for a team that needed him to be stellar. Not much was expected out of the Eagles this year, and expectations sunk even lower after losing to FAU on opening night and dropping a home game to Central Connecticut eight days later. They entered conference play at just 7-6 with four losses to teams outside the current top 130 in KenPom. The defense has actually been fairly stingy, anchored by Jayden Hastings and Aidan Shaw, ranking 51^st in Adj Eff and 22^nd in eFG% allowed. They’ve fallen off a cliff offensively though. The shooting splits are abysmal which has resulted in just 68.2 PPG, far and away the worst in the ACC and 297^th nationally. Junior guard Fred Payne has been a bright spot and is on a tear as of late, going for 18+ in six straight games, but this simply isn’t a P5 roster at a place that has grown increasingly harder to put one together. They were able to pick up a couple home wins recently against Syracuse and Pitt, but Grant is likely going to need a miracle at this point to return for a 6^th season.

California (Trending: Up)

Mark Madsen is starting to gain some traction in his 3^rd season in Berkley after back-to-back losing seasons to start the tenure. A 12-1 nonconference record didn’t have much substance outside of a Q1 neutral victory over UCLA, so a 1-4 ACC start against a front-loaded schedule wasn’t surprising. But they rebounded last week with another Q1 win over UNC and a double-digit road victory at rival Stanford. Dai Dai Ames (17.1 ppg) and Justin Pippen (14.8 ppg) have been better than anticipated, basically matching the scoring production left behind by Andrej Stojakovic and Jeremiah Wilkinson. Ames in particular has broken out after up and down seasons at Virginia and K-State, and his efficiency numbers are much better than last year’s departed scoring leaders which has generated more positive possessions. 5^th year senior John Camden has been a huge boost after not panning out at Virginia Tech in two seasons, while former Syracuse sharpshooter Chris Bell is averaging career highs in points and rebounds. A Florida swing this week will be crucial in continuing that momentum into a less daunting back half of the schedule. Being on the bubble is a huge step in the right direction for the program.

Clemson (Trending: Flat)

About a week ago I gave Brad Brownell kudos on X for the job he’s doing at Clemson, building them into a rock solid program after perpetually being on the hot seat throughout what felt like most of his 15+ year tenure. They promptly went out later that evening and lost at home to NC State in OT, who was coming off an ugly Q4 home loss to Georgia Tech. Although not a bad loss to a talented yet inconsistent Wolfpack squad, it kept me from labeling them a “Trending Up” and their metrics are sitting pretty similarly to preseason. That being said, this has still been an impressive season to date and are a blown 21-point halftime lead against BYU and letting one slip late at Alabama away from being a fringe top 10 team. Their 17-4 record is even more impressive when you consider all that they lost from a year ago. Dillon Hunter is the ONLY returner who played for Clemson last year, and the transfer portal haul didn’t raise any eyebrows. Yet the new comers have been solid and the two-big lineup (with 4 guys in that rotation) is a handful for teams to match physically. Do they have enough playmaking in the backcourt to truly be a threat in March? That’s what ultimately could cap their ceiling, but a top 4 finish in the ACC is well within reach.

Dillon Hunter was the only returner for Clemson, and he'll need to elevate his game down the stretch (Photo Credit: Alexandra O'Dell / The Tiger)

Duke (Trending: Up)

Jon Scheyer is doing it again folks. After losing his entire starting lineup to the NBA Draft, he’s got the Blue Devils almost exactly where he had them a year ago. The recipe isn’t all that different either: elite positional size, relentless defense and efficient offense. While they maybe don’t have the same sex appeal as a Cooper Flagg/Kon Kneuppel led squad, it’s been just as effective thanks to Cameron Boozer’s boringly consistent play. Boozer is 0.1 rebounds from averaging a double-double, and his usage rate ranks as one of the highest in the country, but guys like Isaiah Evans and Patrick Ngongba II have stepped seamlessly into larger roles. With wins over Kansas, Michigan State, Florida, Arkansas and now a clean sweep of Louisville, Duke is once again a clear title contender. That neutral site game against Michigan on 2/21 should be a doozy.

Florida State (Trending: Down)

It’s been a trying first season for Luke Loucks at his alma mater. Loucks was brought in as part of the recent trend of hiring NBA assistants during this new transactional era of college basketball, so it’s no surprise they’ve tried to play an up-tempo NBA style. The problem is that the roster doesn’t have NBA players and is instead littered with mid-major transfers. The Noles get up 3s at the 8^th highest rate in the country while making just 31.6% of them (281^st); UMass Lowell transfer Martin Somerville is the only player shooting above 33%. As inefficient as the offense has been, the defense has been worse with massive issues inside ranking 284^th in 2pt defense and 293^rd in Off Reb % allowed. We caught a little fool’s gold early in the season when they nearly knocked off Florida in Gainesville, but a non-competitive 5-game skid a few weeks later was a snap back to reality and foreshadowing for the rest of the season. It could get worse before it gets better, but give the staff some time here.

Georgia Tech (Trending: Down)

The Yellow Jackets really started to hit their stride down the stretch last season, finishing 8-4 including wins over Louisville and Clemson. With a promising inside/out combo of Baye Ndongo and Naithan George, I was going to be looking at them as a trendy pick towards the top of the conference… until George entered the portal. That really hasn’t even been an issue though as his replacement, Lamar Washington, has essentially matched his production and efficiency numbers while Kowacie Reeves (16.3 ppg) returned from last year’s season ending injury to be on a career pace. While there’s been good individual performances, the offense as a whole has been sunk by turnovers, free throw shooting and poor efficiency inside the arc. The last two are particularly important considering Georgia Tech takes 3s at one of the lowest rates in the country. Starting center and top 20 freshman Mo Sylla has only played 10 minutes in the month of January due to injury, dealing a big blow to the interior where Ndongo has sort of flat lined in his development. Outside of the upset at NC State a couple Saturday’s ago, the Yellow Jackets have zero wins over teams in the top 140 of KenPom, with 7 of 9 losses coming by double digits. Because of this they’ve fallen from 70 to 134 in the KenPom metric over the course of the year, and the schedule only gets more difficult the rest of the way.

Louisville (Trending: Down)

Going to try not to use too much recency bias writing this the day after they got completely bullied by Duke, but the reality is this is one of the most disappointing teams in the country. The Mikel Brown injury absolutely has played a role in things. Heading into this week the Cards were 10-1 with him in the lineup and 4-4 without. It turns out the strategy of surrounding an elite point guard with shooters doesn’t work without said point guard. But the injury was used too much as a scapegoat for their struggles and this was exposed last night. Pat Kelsey has a fastball, and boy is it fast, but once the batter catches up he’s got no secondary pitches to go to. The Cards can fly up and down the court and rank 1^st in 3pt rate with tons of good shooters, but playing like that can be streaky and when they’re not hitting it’s really tough to win. With an above average 35.2% 3pt shooting mark on the season, they’re shooting just 26% in their six losses without reaching that season average in any of them. The physicality and length from Duke completely overwhelmed them last night, and this has been a theme in nearly all of those losses as well: Duke x2, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas. The talent of this team is undeniable, but it’s clear they’re trending the wrong way and looking like too much of a matchup reliant team.

Miami (Trending: Up)

One of the biggest risers from where the metrics had them in the preseason, Jai Lucas’ inaugural season as a head coach has been a success. There were some mixed feelings on this move, going from a longtime coaching mainstay in Jim Larranaga to a first time head coach, but I was a fan of this outside the box hire and so far liking the returns. As is the case for a lot of new coaches nowadays, Lucas had to build this roster completely from scratch and dipped into a wide range of areas to do so. College veterans Tre Donaldson, Malik Reneau, Tru Washington and Ernest Udeh have each seen upticks in efficiency from their previous stops and are posting career highs in ppg. Heralded freshman Shelton Henderson is really coming into his own in the month of January, and a couple international bigs have proven to be able to provide valuable minutes. It’s not always the prettiest, but the Canes are relentless inside the arc as one of the best 2pt and Rebounding teams on both ends of the floor, which contrary to the team above is a style that travels and offers less inconsistency. The only blemishes at 16-4 are no marquee wins (although they do have 3 Q2 road wins) and the home loss to Florida State last week. The remaining schedule isn’t all that difficult either with no Duke this year and both UNC and Louisville at home. The resume might not have much top end beef but if they continue stacking wins, an NCAAT birth should be on the table.

Malik Reneau (5) was the cornerstone of Jai Lucas' first portal haul and has career highs in points, rebounds and each of the shooting splits (Photo Credit: 247Sports)

NC State (Trending: Flat)

The Red Reckoning was here for the ACC and college basketball… until it wasn’t. Will Wade was the flashy hire of the offseason and put together a really nice looking roster, headlined by the big fish that is Darrion Williams. They passed the eye test early with wins over solid mid-majors VCU and UAB but then went 1-2 in the weakest Maui field I can remember. The glaring issue with this team has been the inconsistency from game to game. There’s plenty to like with elite turnover rates, 3pt shooting and a deep crop of guards. Quadir Copeland has been a revelation at PG and Paul McNeil has lived up to his billing as a lethal shooter in his sophomore season. But the defense has been poor at times, Williams has really struggled from the field lately and outside of Ven-Allen Lubin they don’t have much inside. A Q4 home loss to Georgia Tech last Saturday was a massive black eye on an otherwise clean resume, but two road wins at Clemson and Pitt have since offset that. Going 2-0 this week is crucial to build momentum headed into a really difficult February schedule. The good news is they somehow only play Duke and UNC once each, with both in Raleigh. They’re on the right side of the bubble with plenty of opportunities to pick up good wins.

North Carolina (Trending: Flat)

In a make-or-break season for Hubert Davis, he went back to Carolina’s roots when constructing this roster: build your team from inside out. Great interior play had been a staple at UNC under Roy Williams with names like Tyler Hansbrough, John Henson, Brice Johnson and Luke Maye to name a few. This year’s starting frontcourt of Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar has gotten back to those ways and proven to be one of the best duos in the country. It led to a 13-1 start with solid wins over Kansas and Kentucky, but the holes on the perimeter became glaring to start conference play. In 3 road losses, the Tar Heels allowed 92 ppg in large part to poor perimeter defense. Kyan Evans and Seth Trimble are both nice pieces but they’re not dudes. Things were trending in the wrong direction and seemed ready to stay that way until the huge comeback win at Virginia on Saturday. Time will tell but for now it seems like that may have righted the ship, although they’ll need more from those not named Wilson or Veesaar to reach their potential.

Notre Dame (Trending: Down)

The Fighting Irish came into this season with some promise returning their starting backcourt, a promising young wing in Sir Mohammed and the highest rated recruit in school history in Jalen Haralson. Unfortunately for the second year in a row, a midseason injury to star PG Markus Burton derailed any hope. Since Burton went out, the Irish have limped to a 4-6 record highlighted (or lowlighted really) by a home loss to Purdue-Fort Wayne and Micah Shrewsberry charging an official after losing in the final seconds at Cal. This is a team that at full strength is obviously much better than it’s record, but one that has struggled mightily without Burton against the top teams it’s played. Much like Louisville with Mikel Brown, although with a much lower ceiling, this team just doesn’t work with Burton absent. There really aren’t other shot creators and the defense isn’t good enough to keep them in games against quality competition. It’s tough to judge this team as they are currently, and ultimately why I don’t think Shrewsberry is in danger of getting let go even if they stumble to a 3^rd straight losing season under him.

Pittsburgh (Trending: Down)

Pitt began the season ranked 63^rd in KenPom, a fairly respectable spot with a rebuilt roster, but this season never really got off the ground. After three uninspiring buy games, the Panthers would lose 6 of their next 8 with two bad home losses to Hofstra and Quinnipiac. Starting center Cam Corhen was the primary returner, but he’s seen career low efficiency numbers with career high usage. The guard play has been inconsistent, with Brandin Cummings and Barry Dunning both posting some big scoring outputs, but they can’t seem to get everyone going on the same night. There’s also not a ton of quality depth for a team that only goes 7 deep. The Panthers rank 347^th with 66.3% mark from the FT line, and that was the determining factor in two losses last week to Boston College and NC State. At 8-12 (1-6) there’s not a lot to love right now if you’re a Pitt fan or Jeff Capel, who could be counting his days.

SMU (Trending: Up)

Somewhat of an analytical darling in Andy Enfield’s inaugural season, the Mustangs spent much of last year’s ACC play hovering in the 40s of the advanced metrics but an inability to pick up any victories of note kept a 23-win team out of the tournament. Enfield returned three starters, added a couple veteran wing scorers in the portal and signed a top 10 recruiting class headlined by local big man Jaden Toombs. The result has been a 15-5 start with four wins better than anything they were able to get last year. PG Boopie Miller (19.4 ppg, 6.7 apg, 37.4% 3pt) has been awesome. Jaron Pierre Jr. (17.5 ppg) has seen his scoring translate from Jacksonville State. Do-everything-guard BJ Edwards is coming off maybe the best week of his career. Needless to say, they have guards for days. Add in 7’2” center Samet Yigitoglu and Toombs finding his footing after a preseason injury, and this is a very well-rounded roster. The defense has plagued them at times and if it doesn’t improve could suppress the team’s overall potential. They have the week off before traveling to Louisville and hosting NC State. We’ll know for sure on SMU in about a week, but there’s a lot to like here.

Boopie Miller (2) leads a deep backcourt for an SMU team that has a lot more substance to their winning record this season (Photo Credit: SMU Athletics)

Stanford (Trending: Up)

Considering where they began the season in KenPom (90) vs where they are now (79) you could argue that they’re not really trending up. But I didn’t expect much out of this team after losing stud Maxime Raynaud to the NBA and Oziyah Sellers to St. Johns, but Kyle Smith can flat out coach. The story here is Ebuka Okorie. A four-star freshman but far from a household name, Okorie has burst onto the scene and made a case to be noticed in a season full of elite freshmen across the country. Okorie ranks 11^th nationally at 21.7 ppg, which is 3^rd for freshman behind only AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer. He gives them a chance every game, with 3pt shooting being his only true weakness. The injury to 2^nd leading scorer Chisom Okpara has slowed things a bit for a team that is pretty top heavy, although they did beat UNC without him. The Cardinal are a high IQ team (obviously) that typically win the turnover battle, rebound fairly well and get to the free throw line. They do rank just 251^st in eFG% offensively and 186^th defensively. That blend of good and bad offers a low ceiling/high floor, but with a handful of marquee wins against Louisville, UNC and Saint Louis (their ONLY loss), they’ve put themselves on the bubble which is more than I expected.

Syracuse (Trending: Down)

Coming into Red Autry’s 3^rd season there was growing pressure to get back to the NCAA tournament after going 14-19 a year ago. He was able to pluck stud PG Naithan George and promising young big Ibrahim Souare from Georgia Tech, along with exciting freshmen Kiyan Anthony and Sadiq White. Adding that to JJ Starling and Donnie Freeman and it was easy to see why there was some optimism. Beating Tennessee in the SEC-ACC challenge was huge, but that is their only win against a top 100 team and things have taken a rough turn the last few weeks. After starting 12-5 (3-1) feasting on an easy schedule to begin conference play, the Orange dropped a bad one to cellar dweller Boston College which spiraled into two more home losses in winnable games against VT and Miami. Their season is now on life support and this roster is too talented for that to be the case. George has regressed from his time at Georgia Tech, JJ Starling is still too inefficient and the two freshmen don’t seem ready to be consistent contributors. For a team that gets to the charity stripe at a decent rate, ranking 363^rd in FT shooting percentage is bad for business. To make matters worse, 3 out of their next 4 are on the road at NC State, UNC and Virginia. Add in trips to Duke and Louisville a little later down the line and the outlook is bleak.

Virginia (Trending: Up)

To me, this is the story of the conference so far. The conference as a whole is much improved, but Virginia’s turnaround in Ryan Odom’s first year has been the biggest single boost to the conference. It’s given the ACC more street cred having one of their traditional powers back consistently in the top 25 and offers a Q1 opportunity for opponents regardless of location, something the conference has sorely lacked in recent years. Odom has done it with some familiar UVA traits of toughness and great halfcourt defense, but with much more offensive pace and versatility. They get out and run, take 3s at a high rate and make a lot of them (44^th nationally in 3pt%). They’ve got 5 guards who are all quality shooters, with Malik Thomas (13.5 ppg) the go-to option. The team’s leading scorer though at 16.3 ppg is Belgian import Thijs De Ridder. In an era that has seen a heavy influx of international players, De Ridder has been one of the best and at 6’9” 238lbs is a load to deal with. A two man rotation of 7-footers makes it nearly impossible to score inside on Virginia, ranking 6^th in 2pt% allowed and 4^th in Blk%. The Cavaliers momentum was halted blowing a double-digit 2^nd half lead to UNC at home, but make no mistake this team can make a run in March.

Was Ryan Odom the hire of the offseason? He's got Virginia right back on the national scene in Year 1 (Photo Credit: UVA Athletics)

Virginia Tech (Trending: Flat)

Speaking of impactful international players, Mike White dipped into Greece to bring over smooth point-forward Neo Avdalas. The 6’9” freshman made his presence felt earlier with 33 pts, 6 ast and 5 reb in an OT win over Providence on the first week of the season. Since this he’s really struggled with consistency and is shooting just 17.9% from 3 in ACC play, but he’s a critical piece that can make things happens for himself or others. The Hokies unfortunately have had to deal with injuries to a few starters, as Tobi Lawal and Tyler Johnson (currently out) have both missed extensive time. With both in the lineup they are 6-0. Even with that, they’ve still been in position to look even better than their 15-6 record. Their first three ACC losses all came in the final 10 seconds, including a blown 13-point lead with 2:52 left at home vs Stanford and a halfcourt buzzer beater at SMU. Those two excruciating losses would’ve had them squarely in the tournament if flipped, but instead could potentially be the end at the end of the season. Regardless, this team has exceeded expectations.

Wake Forest (Trending: Down)

Believe it or not this is Steve Forbes’ 6^th season in Winston-Salem. I had to double check that just to make sure because it doesn’t feel like it. I was bullish on Wake coming into the season again, and two near misses against Michigan and Texas Tech in November had me feeling good about that. However, the Deacs have fallen on hard times lately going just 2-6 since 12/17. It is very much a front-loaded conference schedule, but several of those losses have been blowouts and the defense has really struggled against top offenses. Rebounding is once again a major issue, as is the interior defense (316^th in 2pt% allowed) while surrendering a ton of points at the free throw line. Tre’Von Spillers, Omaha Biliew and Cooper Schwieger offer all offer something different offensively, but it’s not enough elsewhere. Sophomore Juke Harris (20.6 ppg) is a budding star on the wing, scoring double figures in every single game, but he needs help out there. While a lot of teams across the conference have improved their standing from the start of the season, Wake Forest has been one of the fallers.