ACC Hot Seat Meter
- Lewis Huston
- 1 day ago
- 10 min read
Currently in the dog days of conference play, it’s obvious that the ACC is much improved and has lived up to that preseason expectation. The ACC has by far it’s highest KenPom net rating (+15.02) since 2019, when it had three 1 seeds. While the overall vibes are trending up for the conference, and programs like Virginia, Miami and NC State have taken massive leaps under new coaches, there’s still some tough situations in the bottom half where several coaches could be coaching for their jobs in February/March. We’ll go ahead and get the easy ones out of the way.
Jon Scheyer, Pat Kelsey, Brad Brownell, Ryan Odom, Will Wade, Jai Lucas, Andy Enfield, Kyle Smith and Luke Loucks will all be back next season, unless any of them chose to leave for whatever reason. I don’t see that being the case for any of them though as seven are either in their first or second year, Scheyer is having great success at his alma mater and Brownell is synonymous with Clemson basketball at this point. It’s no coincidence most of these coaches have their teams in the top half of the standings. The rest of the league though? It’s not quite as peachy, as the rest have varying levels of heat on their seat.
Hot Seat Tiers:
1-3: Safe, but worth a discussion
4-6: Safe for now, but circle back in March
7-8: That seat is warm, show me something
9-10: Yeah, they’re probably cooked
Earl Grant, Boston College
Hot Seat Meter: 10
This one feels inevitable as Grant’s sixth season in Chestnut Hill is trending towards being his worst. At 9-12 overall the Eagles aren’t projected to win another game per KenPom, which would be the first time they failed to reach double digit wins since doing so back-to-back in 2016 and 2017. That was under Jim Christian, who probably got a seventh year primarily due to the Covid unknowns.
Grant’s tenure has been similar with a “breakthrough” after a few years, winning 20 games in 2024 with a future NBA player in Quentin Post, but failing to capitalize and create any momentum. In addition to losing Post to the NBA, five others in the rotation transferred to different P5 schools, while Chas Kelley and Elijah Strong stuck around one more season before transferring out to places where their play improved. Donald Hand Jr is the only one from that roster that is still in the program, and he has regressed heavily after last year’s breakout.
The inability to consistently construct good rosters, develop players and now the way this year is going after starting with a nonconference slate that included losses to five other teams outside the top 100 probably has his fate sealed.
Mark Madsen, California
Hot Seat Meter: 1
After bottoming out as a program under a different Mark (Fox) going 3-29 in 2023, Mark Madsen was brought in off an excellent season at Utah Valley. It’s not talked about how difficult of a position he was signing up for, with a full on rebuild needed while also navigating historic conference realignment which now has the Bears competing on the east coast.
Even with that consideration, there was definitely some growing pressure to show tangible improvement in the win column after going 27-38 in first two seasons and losing his top two scorers to the transfer portal. He’s done just that with a 16-6 record and several quality wins that have them in the NCAA bubble conversation for the first time in nearly 10 years.
They’re led by three portal hits in Dai Dai Ames, Justin Pippen and John Camden who all had question marks coming in; a point in favor of Madsen. Between those three examples and signing Jeremiah Wilkinson out of high school, a relatively unheralded recruit, this staff clearly has a knack for player evaluations and development.
A big “ah here we go again” was setting in during a 1-4 start to ACC play, but they’ve since rebounded with two Q1 wins that dumped a bucket of cold water on Madsen’s seat. The remainder of the schedule is SOFT, so if they take care of business against the bottom 1/3 of the conference, then this team should be dancing in what would be one of the more underrated turnarounds in recent memory. Also worth noting that he signed a contract extension through 2030 after his first season.
Damon Stoudamire, Georgia Tech
Hot Seat Meter: 5
Stoudamire was an interesting hire at the time, an NBA assistant for the Celtics with his only college head coaching experience being a five-year tenure at Pacific where they were under .500. He’s done a lot of the right things, with back-to-back top 20 recruiting classes, solid portal adds and big wins over Duke, UNC, Louisville, Clemson and NC State.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t materialized into consistent results. After starting 8-3 in his first year, including that win over Duke, the Yellow Jackets are just 34-43. A really strong finish in 2025 had some optimism heading this year, but for the second season in a row they weren’t able to beat anyone in the top 150 in nonconference play and dropped a game or two they shouldn’t have.
Stoudamire had some lengthy comments in his postgame presser about the state of the program after getting dominated at home by UNC. In summary, he mentioned some of the highlights while admitting they’re not where he wants them to be at this point in his tenure and pointing out the inconsistency with their results. I still don’t think he’s in any danger of getting fired because there are enough positives and it has been a competent operation at times, but they’ll need to find a way to start turning that talent they’re bringing in into more consistent winning.
Hubert Davis, North Carolina
Hot Seat Meter: 4
This was a really tough one to rate for a couple reasons. It’s a completely different situation than any other program/coach in this piece, as they’re actually posting winning records and making tournaments year in and year out, but at a place like Carolina where basketball excellence is expected it hasn’t been enough.
Yes, they lost in the national championship in Hubert’s first year. But they were an 8 seed and followed it up by going from preseason # 1 to missing the tournament altogether. They rebounded in 2024 by securing a 1 seed, but got upset in the Sweet 16 and followed that up by barely sneaking into the tournament in the play-in game last year.
At 17-4 they’re in a good spot, but it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows. They rank outside the top 20 in most advanced metrics and had a rough start to conference play, especially defensively and on the road. But they’ve now won 3 straight including a big road win at Virginia, so as it stands now Hubert Davis would be safe. I doubt he’s feeling too comfortable though with a tough back half of the schedule upcoming, and knowing that the fanbase expects more than just tournament appearances.
Micah Shrewsberry, Notre Dame
Hot Seat Meter: 6
Shrewsberry took over for longtime Irish coach Mike Brey after just two seasons as a head coach at Penn State, where he won 23 games and made the tournament in year two at a place that’s difficult to do so. He hasn’t quite gotten things off the ground yet at Notre Dame though with two losing seasons and an 11-11 start this year.
Despite the ugly record in his first season he seemed to have begun to set a nice foundation with a 6-4 finish and solid roster retention, including budding star freshman point guard Markus Burton. Since then though, a midseason injury to Burton each of the last two years has halted momentum and derailed the team’s seasons in the process. These rosters haven’t been constructed to succeed without him as they sorely lack additional playmaking guards, an indictment on the staff’s roster construction.
The injury luck is ultimately why I don’t think Shrewsberry gets let go, but currently in the midst of a 1-7 stretch they’ll probably need to show some life the rest of the way to keep his seat from getting piping hot.
Jeff Capel, Pittsburgh
Hot Seat Meter: 9
In 6 full seasons at the helm, Jeff Capel has won 20 games just twice. They were also under .500 in a covid shortened 2021 that wouldn’t have seen them reach that mark even with a full slate. For context of where Pitt once was a short time ago, Jamie Dixon won 20 games in 12/13 seasons without ever posting a losing record.
At 9-13 (2-7), year 8 is trending towards another failed season and almost assuredly no NCAA tournament appearance for the 7th time now. There’s been some flashes with exciting guard play on a few of his teams, but playing at a slow pace with rather inefficient offenses and defenses hasn’t worked over time and it really feels like this has run its course. The roster is arguably the worst it’s been and I don’t see an avenue for things improving in the long run, and certainly not in the short term with an upcoming stretch of @ Virginia, SMU, Duke and @ UNC. That could potentially be the nail in the coffin.
Adrian Autry, Syracuse
Hot Seat Meter: 6
I’ve been very much in the camp of thinking Adrian Autry wouldn’t survive this year with the recent 4-game losing streak, the longest of his short tenure. But as I step back and look at everything I’m beginning to believe more and more that this year won’t be his last for a couple reasons.
It hasn’t been all bad under Autry. In his first year as a head coach the Orange finished a respectable 20-12, shockingly their first 20-win regular season since 2018. Last year wasn’t pretty and what put some pressure on him, although they did deal with injuries to several starters including JJ Starling and Donnie Freeman. Speaking of Freeman, he was a really nice prep signing who Autry was able to add two more top 50 players to this year in Sadiq White and Kiyan Anthony.
With a few returners and an underrated transfer class, this was looking like an NCAA tournament team on paper. Obviously, games aren’t played on paper so it’s disappointing that a team with this much talent is sitting at just 13-9. True, that likely comes down to a coaching issue, but even with that it’s currently his best rated team on KenPom so far and a roster I feel is better than the last few that Jim Boeheim trotted out there.
Although it may not feel like it after starting 12-5 (3-1), there is definitely an upward trajectory visible. And oh yeah, he was a fan favorite as a player for the Orange. That typically buys you some extra grace with administrations not wanting to eat their own. I think things would really have to go off the rails down the stretch. Of course, it’s entirely possible they could with road games at UNC, Virginia, Duke and Louisville which is why I’m leaving the hot seat meter at a 6 despite making multiple cases for him.
Mike Young, Virginia Tech
Hot Seat Meter: 5
After a successful 17-year run at Wofford, Mike Young finally made the leap to take over for Buzz Williams after he predictably got restless and had to find a new gig. Young didn’t inherit much of anything in terms of personnel, having to recruit and play six freshmen back when that was a thing.
After obviously struggling out of the gate with all that youth, he was able to build some nice roster continuity which resulted in back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances. Since then, it’s been mediocrity at best as he’s had to fight an uphill battle with very little basketball funding compared to his competitors in the NIL/portal era.
The man can coach offense as they’ve still had a couple solid units, but the defensive side of the ball has lagged far behind and a lack of top end talent makes overcoming deficiencies that much tougher. With reportedly additional resources this year, Young and staff put together a much more balanced roster with a couple NBA-caliber pieces.
A hot 12-2 start capped by an upset win over rival Virginia has seen them come back down to earth since, with a couple excruciating last second losses that would have them firmly in the tournament otherwise. Instead, as it stands now they find themselves either in the Last 4 In or First 4 Out of most brackets. The Hokies certainly have chances to move the needle with five Q1 road games remaining. All that to say is they’re clearly improved, and more resources have helped. I don’t think Young HAS to make the tournament to keep his job, but it may keep those in power from possibly having to make a tough decision.
Steve Forbes, Wake Forest
Hot Seat Meter: 8
This is one of the toughest evaluations for me in this piece. I loved the Steve Forbes hire and thought he could get Wake Forest back to being consistently competitive. In many ways, he has done just that. Coming into this year he had posted a winning record in 4/5 seasons, with 21+ wins in three of those and multiple 13-7 ACC records. He’s also had a 1st Team All-ACC selection in four consecutive seasons.
Despite all of the positives, an NCAA tournament appearance has eluded him and at 11-11 they’ll miss out once again with another likely All-ACC selection in Juke Harris. In fairness, they’ve been snubbed twice now and have been maybe the biggest victim of being punished for a down ACC. But the fact is they’ve controlled their own destiny down the stretch several times and suffered bad losses at the worst moments.
It’s kind of been the theme of the Forbes tenure and patience is starting to run thin as they’re currently in a stretch of bad basketball. It’s hard for an AD to justify bringing someone back after six seasons and no NCAA tournament appearances, especially when even Danny Manning got them in once.
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