Texas vs Clemson Preview

Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (2) and WR Bryant Wesco Jr (12)

Texas and Clemson are two of the winningest programs in college football history, yet they’ve never played each other. Their starting quarterbacks though? This will be a rematch of the 2021 Texas 6A state championship game where Austin-native Cade Klubnik outdueled Quinn Ewers. That was arguably high school football’s biggest stage, and now nearly 4 years later they’ll meet on college football’s biggest stage. Clemson had a disappointing season based on their recent standards, but still backed their way in to the ACC championship game and held off SMU to clinch an automatic bid to the playoff. Texas on the other hand has been ranked in the top 5 the entire season, yet still feels disappointed with 2 losses to Georgia. So who’s going to leave Saturday with the disappointment of a finished season?

When Texas has the ball

Steve Sarkisian is one the best offensive minds in the game and he has talent to work with, but something about this Texas offense just feels off. Quinn Ewers has led the Horns to the CFP in consecutive years, although this year it’s been more in spite of him. Early on it looked like he was on his way to repeat last year’s stellar performance, but an oblique injury suffered in week 3 completely flipped his season. He missed a couple games and since then just hasn’t looked right. In his 3rd year at Texas, he’s recorded a career high 9 INTs and has more turnover worthy plays than big time throws for the first time in his career.

Part of the problem has been that he doesn’t have the same caliber of pass catchers as he’s been blessed with. Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Jordan Wittington and JT Sanders are all contributing on NFL rosters. This year he’s throwing to a bunch of undersized targets, and his best one Isaiah Bond has been dealing with a lingering ankle issue down the stretch. It sounds like there’s a good chance that could keep him out of this game altogether. Matthew Golden has been really good but I’m not sure I view him as a WR1 for a national title contending team.

The run game hasn’t been great either: 79th in line yards, 75th in rush EPA and 114th in explosiveness. There’s just been an inability to create chunk plays on the ground, which is really limiting when you consider the 50/50 split in run/pass play calling. Quintrevion Wisner has been too boom or bust this year, having 4 big games and then the rest just meh at best.

The biggest issue with this team has been finishing drives. They moved the ball frequently in their last 2 games against Georgia and Texas A&M but stalled out time and time again. 389 yards against Georgia, crossing the 40-yd line 5 times; 1.8 points per opportunity. In College Station they racked up 461 yards, outgaining the Aggies by 200 but… 1.43 points on 7 trips inside the 40.

One area where the Horns have a big advantage is on passing downs. If Ewers is given time, he’s still shown the ability to hit guys especially over the middle of the field with an elite 90.9 grade on intermediate throws there. Clemson’s biggest weakness is on passing ranking 66th on PD EPA and 87th in success rate.

When Clemson has the ball

Cade Klubnik is arguably the most improved QB in the country. He’s graded as a top 10 QB per PFF and thrown for 3,306 yds, 33 TD and 5 INT. He looks night and day better than last season, and his development into an underrated dual threat is why I actually give him the edge in the QB battle today. Clemson isn’t afraid to use him in the run game with 554 yds and 7 TDs on the ground this year. Being able to improvise and make plays with his legs will be key against a nasty Texas defense.

Klubnik has his most talented trio of receivers in his time at Clemson. Slot man Antonio Williams has turned into a 1st team All-ACC selection in his 3rd year in the program, and the true Fr duo of Bryant Wesco and TJ Moore has special talent. Wesco’s emergence down the stretch as a consistent has been a game-changer, and he’s coming off the best game of his young career with 8 rec, 142 yds (17.0) and 2 TD in the ACC championship win. Will this group along with TE Jake Brinningstool be able to create separation and make plays against the best pass D in the country? This elite secondary, led by Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron and former Clemson Tiger Andrew Mukuba, doesn’t allow much and ranks 4th in INT per game.

Those guys will be key because the backfield is a huge question mark heading into the playoff. Phil Mafah has been the workhorse and when healthy is one of the better backs in the ACC. But he’s battled some lingering stuff that he’s played through, and Dabo said this week that he’ll have shoulder surgery after the season. During that same press conference he also announced backup Jay Haynes tore his ACL in the ACC Championship game. No other RB on the roster has more than 26 carries. Texas run D is the one area where they’re not dominant, ranking 43rd in rush EPA and 55th in success rate. But I’m not sure Clemson has the horses at this point.

Prediction

Clemson comes in as massive underdogs catching 13.5 points on the road, so they’ll have to play a near flawless game to pull off the upset. Whatever you might think of Dabo Swinney, you can’t deny results and the longevity of his success. He’ll have his team ready to play I’m sure of that. Klubnik vs Ewers rematch is going to be talked about until you want to mute the tv. I do think that matchup though is what can give Clemson a chance. Klubnik has undoubtedly been the better QB all year and offers more explosive potential due to his legs, but at the end of the day Texas is simply the more complete team and has more bullets. I think both teams could struggle to get in the endzone, but Texas’ ability to create turnovers and negative plays will be the difference. In the words of Lee Corso… a lot closer than the experts think!

Texas 23, Clemson 17