Penn State vs SMU Preview

SMU QB Kevin Jennings

Once upon a time the national champion was decided by the AP Poll, the group of voters we yell at and call idiots weekly. Then the BCS had a nice run in the era for the computer science nerds. But somehow college football in 2013 was still the only major sport in both collegiate and professional ranks that didn’t decide their champion with some sort of playoff. With that the first ever 4-team playoff was born. But that too has inevitably run its course with the small field limiting the money-making potential and excluding good teams each year. Now the day has finally come with the historic expanded playoff set to kick off and the first team to ever represent the ACC is… SMU? Welcome to 2024 baby! In their first year since joining the ACC, in a slightly controversial expansion move, the Pony Express ran train on the conference en route to the CFP. What a return on investment for Jim Phillips. So, with that history lesson let’s dive in to the matchup against Penn State.

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Penn State welcomes SMU to Happy Valley, where they haven’t lost to a team not named Ohio State or Michigan since October 2021 (which even that took 9 overtimes). Both teams are coming off losses in their conference championship games. The Mustangs lost on 56-yard game-winning FG to Clemson after a furious 17-point 4th quarter comeback to tie the game just 16 seconds prior. The Nittany Lions on the other hand got into a back-and-forth shootout with # 1 Oregon, eventually falling 45-37 after Drew Allar threw the game sealing pick with under 2 minutes remaining. Penn State FINALLY gets their first shot in the playoff after being on the doorstep seemingly every year. Since 2016, James Franklin has had his team ranked in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings in 6/8 seasons, just missing out largely due to a 3-9 record against the aforementioned Buckeyes and Wolverines. Hence the birth of the name "Small Game James". All it took was adding 8 more tickets to the playoff to get in. Funny thing is they actually would’ve made it in the old format this year as the 4th ranked team LOL.

When Penn State has the ball

Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was hired away from Kansas for two main reasons: make Penn State more explosive and unlock QB Drew Allar. The explosive aspect has seen a marginal improvement, but they have jumped up from 60th to 11th in total offense. The big success has come with Allar, who has seen improvement pretty much across the board. His accuracy has gotten a huge bump from 59.6% to 69.1% and he’s thrown for over 200 more yards this year on fewer attempts, evident with a year over year increase in ADOT and big-time throw %. He’s looked more confident as a passer and his play has been much more consistent. Will he have time to throw though? PFF ranks Penn State’s pass blocking 99th against the 7th highest graded pass rush in SMU. The absence of starting RT Anthony Donkah could be a real issue.

A big part of Allar's success has been the presence of All-World TE Tyler Warren. This ain’t your typical security blanket TE. He was getting some Heisman buzz for a little which will happen when you’ve caught, ran for and even thrown TDs. The numbers are insane: 88 rec, 1,062 yds (12.1) and 6 TDs as a receiver, plus 22 car, 191 yds (8.7) and 4 TDs. At 6’6” 261 lbs it takes matchup nightmare to a different stratosphere, and should cause problems for SMU who’s top 2 linebackers are a tad undersized at just 5’11” and 6’0”. Warren's emergence has offset yet another underwhelming WR corps for Penn State. For whatever reason they just haven’t been able to get consistent play out of that room for a few years now. Harrison Wallace III has had some nice moments, but other guys such as former 5-star Julian Fleming from Ohio St have been disappointments. Warren actually has the same number of receptions as the Nittany Lion’s top 4 wideouts combined.

This offense still starts on the ground though with two headed monster Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The duo, in their 3rd season together, has played a ton of football and both have run for over 800 yards this year with a combined 13 TDs. The rush offense in it’s entirety is top 20 in both rush EPA and success rate. The defense that ranks 1st nationally in rush EPA allowed? It's SMU. They’ve been especially stingy as of late, not allowing an opposing back to eclipse 45 yards in 3 straight games. A classic strength on strength matchup.

It should also be noted that backup QB Beau Pribula is no longer with the team after entering the transfer portal last week. Usually that would be a nothing burger in what is now a 3-game season, but they actually have packages for him as he’s appeared in all 13 games in some fashion. Pribula is used primarily as a runner (with the threat of a pass) and he’s racked up 38 car, 256 yds (6.7) and 4 TDs on the year. Losing him isn’t necessarily a game-changer, but it’s one less thing SMU has to prepare for and also puts you one play away from having to play a freshman who’s never thrown a pass in college.

When SMU has the ball

This offense really took off once Kevin Jennings began as the full-time starter in week 4, putting up 39.8 ppg in the 10 games since which would put them 3rd in the country. Last year’s starter Preston Stone just never looked right to begin the year after recovering from a knee injury he suffered towards the end of last year. He’s also entered the portal, but unlike Pribula is sticking around through the CFP so they at least have that insurance. Since taking over, Jennings has been spectacular outside of an ugly 5 TO performance at Duke, throwing for over 3,000 yds, 22 TDs and 8 INTs while also adding 423 non-sack rush yds. He’s an electric playmaker who throws a crisp ball and has elusiveness in the pocket to extend plays.

When Jennings isn’t dropping back to throw, he’s handing the ball off to 1st team All-ACC back Brashard Smith. It’s been a breakout campaign after transferring from Miami and finally getting the chance to be showcased. He’s got explosive ability, ranking 13th in both breakaway yardage and runs of 15+. But what makes him so dangerous is his versatility, ranking 2nd on the team with 37 rec out of the backfield. This has resulted in Smith finishing the year with the 2nd best receiving grade amongst RBs nationally.

He's done all of that despite an O-line that ranks 90th in line yards, which doesn’t look good against a Penn State D that ranks 4th in that category and also 3rd in stuff rate. Because of this, they've found themselves behind the chains at times although they have been able to save themselves by being elite on passing downs. This is an area of weakness for Penn State as they rank 95th in passing down explosiveness allowed, so they’re susceptible to giving up yardage when the opponent needs it. SMU has a bunch of speedsters at WR who can take advantage, as it’s seemingly been a different guy having a big game each week since starter Jake Bailey and stud TE RJ Maryland went down midway through the season. The Nittany Lions just got absolutely torched by Tez Johnson, and although none of these guys are that cat, there’s enough big play ability spread throughout that we could see some big plays against this secondary. Keep an eye on Roderick Daniels Jr. in the slot who has come on really strong in the back half of the season.

Prediction

SMU had a little bit of a deer in the headlights look early on in the ACC championship game. This game is even bigger… and going to be played in a much tougher environment. How will they react? They can’t afford to fall behind by double digits early again or this one could get out of hand.

The weather forecast on Saturday is calling for a high of 26 degrees with 15-20 mph winds. Throwing the ball might be tough in those conditions, so whoever is able to run the ball more effectively is going to have a huge edge. I think we could see a rock fight early on here. On one side you’ve got the Allen/Singleton duo going up against an elite run D. On the other you’ve got a Penn St run D that excels making stops near the line of scrimmage, and some advanced metrics that suggest maybe the rushing success has been more about the individual efforts of Smith and Jennings.

If this game is played on a neutral field, I truly think it’s closer to a 50/50 coin flip than the line would suggest. But at the end of the day I trust the Penn State running game as a whole a little more. That, plus the Tyler Warren mismatch, on top of homefield advantage, will be too much. The one neutralizing factor where SMU could have a chance to steal this one is with their speed on the perimeter.

Penn State 31, SMU 24