Duke Football 2025 Preview
- Lewis Huston
- Aug 12
- 8 min read
With Mike Elko bolting to Texas A&M after reinvigorating Duke football in his 2 seasons at the helm, last year was supposed to be a transition year as many had the Blue Devils missing a bowl game. Instead, Manny Diaz stepped in and led them to a 9-win season and had former 5-star transfer QB Maalik Murphy set a school record for TD passes. Murphy now plays for Oregon State but other than that they lost almost nothing to the portal and Diaz has set a standard for this era. They return plenty of key guys and made some under the radar additions through the portal, plus Diaz knows as good as anyone how to coach defense.
Offense
Duke lost their record setting QB to the portal… and may have upgraded? To add some context, he set that TD passing record with only 26, so not exactly a super high bar to clear. Murphy was solid and offered a stable floor, but he wasn’t even a top 5 QB in the conference and was a statue in the pocket offering little to no mobility. Enter Darian Mensah, who starred at Tulane and got a huge NIL offer to come to Durham. Mensah threw for 2,722 yards (65.9%) with 22 TD and 6 INT as a RS Fr in a run-first offense, receiving an 81.4 PFF passing grade (Murphy was 72.0). He offers a lot more versatility and upside with the ability to use his legs, rushing for 250 yards on 5.0 ypc (Murphy had -20 yards). If he builds on his first season, this time with a P5 receiver group, he’s got the potential to be one of the best QBs in program history. Henry Belin IV is back for a IV season and offers a veteran presence with starting experience as the backup.
The only other starter Duke lost to the portal was RB Star Thomas, who ran for 876 yards but did that on just 4.1 ypc. Jaquez Moore actually entered the year as the starter after two impressive seasons backing up Jordan Waters, but he dealt with injuries starting in the preseason and only appeared in parts of 5 games. He returns fully healthy as the starter again and offers more explosiveness which is desperately needed for an offense that ranked 127th in rushing. Peyton Jones, last year’s 2nd leading rusher (317 yds, 3.9 ypc), returns and they also add Anderson Castle, a 5-year contributor at App St that totaled 192 car, 1,041 yds (5.4) and 8 TD there. Keep an eye on true freshman Nate Sheppard. The Rivals 4-star prospect has turned heads in camp and could be a wild card, especially if Moore struggles with health again. His older brother Will was an All-SEC WR at Vandy.
The WR unit was arguably the most underrated in the conference last year but loses it’s top two pass catchers and TE. # 3 receiver Que’Sean Brown and # 4 Sahmir Hagans return though; Brown had 41 rec for 445 yds and was the highest graded WR on the roster while Hagans hauled in 47 passes for 413 yds. Both are primarily slot guys, so Manny Diaz went out and got Cooper Barkate (Harvard) and Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) in the portal.
Barkate is an interesting story as a guy who had plenty of P5 interest out of Mater Dei High School but opted for a Harvard degree. He played 3 seasons there and is coming off his best yet with 63 rec, 1,084 yds (17.2) and 11 TDs. Anthony played 2 seasons each at Michigan and Oklahoma, missing all but a single half of ’24 to injury. A career year in ’23 saw him catch 27 balls for 419 yds (15.5) and he could thrive given a larger role in his final season. The concern here is playable depth. At the TE position, Landen King comes from Utah and likely steps in as the starter from day 1. Much like Anthony, he spent 2 seasons each at different P5 schools and had his best year in ’23 with 14 rec, 166 yds and 3 TD. Jake Taylor and Jeremiah Hasley also return from last year combining for 14 rec and 85 yds.
The offensive line had to replace four starters a year ago with a new OL coach and were ravaged by injuries in Spring ball. Without any continuity and little chemistry built up in the preseason, they struggled mightily opening up holes in the run game ranking 132nd out of 134 in line yards and 130th in stuff rate. They were much better in pass pro tied for 8th nationally with just 12 sacks allowed, although a lot of that can be attributed to Maalik Murphy getting the ball out quicker than anybody in the country with a 2.29 TTT (time to throw). This year though the Blue Devils return four starters led by 1st Tm All-ACC RT Brian Parker II. 6th year senior LT Bruno Fina has to be better this year after allowing 34 pressures, tied for 13th most nationally of any Tackle. Jordan Larsen was brought in from South Dakota in the spring due to an injury and likely rounds out the starting group.
Defense
Manny Diaz has been known as one of the best defensive coaches in college football over the last 15 years, so it was no surprise that Duke was solid on this side of the ball only allowing more than 28 points one time and ranking 13th in EPA allowed. The defensive line was expected to take a big step back after losing a ton of production but ended up being a strength as they were top 30 in both stuff rate and line yards while finishing 4th nationally as a team with 43 sacks.
Now they return three starters and will be one of the stronger units in the conference. Starting defensive ends Wesley Williams and Vincent Anthony combined for 13 sk and 10.5 TFL, while Aaron Hall is back at DT for a 5th year after his first year as a starter racking up 41 tkl, 3.5 sk and 4.5 TFL. Preston Watson or David Anderson could step up into the remaining starting DT spot after both appearing in all 13 games in backup roles. Unanimous 1st Tm All-Ivy League DT Josiah Green (Dartmouth) will factor in here as well. Two backups return at DE but I’ve got my eye on prized true Fr Bryce Davis, the highest rated recruit Duke has landed in the modern era. Davis was named the National DPOY as a senior in high school and should be able to crack the rotation early in situational packages at least with his elite pass rushing skills.
Diaz struck gold from the FCS ranks last year with two transfer linebackers who led the team in tackles, but lose both plus their 3rd leading tackler who played the hybrid Star position. After a slightly diminished role due to play of the newcomers, Tre Freeman (67 tkl, 4 TFL, 2 INT) looks to be the go-to guy on defense like ’23 when he had 106 tkl. Senior Nick Morris is back healthy after starting the opener at MLB before missing the season after just 21 snaps. So while Duke loses a ton of production here they’re still in a good spot with two trustworthy options to fill the holes. There’s not much depth to speak of behind them but Kendall Johnson likely sees an increased snap count for the third consecutive year. Utah State 2-year starter Jaiden Francois (108 total tkl) comes in to fill that Star/Nickel position.
One of the best DBs in college that not enough people know resides in Durham. CB Chandler Rivers was tabbed with 1st Tm All-ACC honors after having 58 tkl, 8 PBU and 3 INT. He's the highest graded returning P4 corner and with a 51.9 cmp% allowed will lock down one side of the field. His partner in crime is off to the NFL so there’s a void to fill on the other side. Kimari Robinson is the most likely candidate after playing in 11 games last year (1 start) with 23 tkl, 4.5 TFL and 4 PBU. Vontae Floyd and Moussa Kane are multi-year guys who played on special teams last year that could get a look here as well. Duke will have two new starting safeties to begin the season with 2nd Tm All-ACC safety Terry Moore suffering a torn ACL in their bowl game. He’s a stud that they’d love to get back, but there’s currently no timetable for his return and I wouldn’t expect to see him until October at the earliest. Caleb Weaver was a 3-year starter at Sam Houston St and was named 1st Tm All-CUSA in ’24 with 97 tkl, 4 INT and 6 PBU. Dashawn Stone is the top returning safety (who will be ready to go week 1) with 55 tkl and 1 start last year. Leon Griffin appeared in every game last year in a limited role, but Duke is looking for guys to step up on the back end.
Special Teams
The Blue Devils have had solid special teams for quite some time now and this year should be no different with all of their key contributors back. Senior K Todd Pelino is ultra reliable going 41/52 (78.8%) in his career and a perfect 4/4 from 50+ yards. Kade Reynoldson was All-ACC HM as a true freshman with an average net of 41.1 and 30 punts inside the 20 (2nd most nationally). Both primary return men, Peyton Jones and Que’sean Brown, are also back.
Schedule
Duke opens with a glorified scrimmage against Elon before adequately testing themselves the next two weeks. Preseason 12th ranked Illinois comes to town in what is one of the more underrated non-conference matchups as the Illini have CFP aspirations heading into the year. They then travel to Tulane in what will assuredly be a hostile crowd for Darian Mensah’s return. Back-to-back road games at Syracuse and Cal before the bye are toss ups. The big scheduling quirk here is they have their 2 byes in a span of 3 weeks, which the staff can’t be a fan of. This leaves them with the month of November having a lot of winnable games outside of Clemson, but it’s still 5 games in 5 weeks to end the season which isn’t ideal.
Overall Outlook
Before tailing off at the end of his tenure, David Cutcliffe put Duke on the map in the mid-2010s after being the laughing stock of power conference football for decades. Two different coaches have now teamed up to win 8+ games in 3 consecutive years to re-establish the standard for Duke football. There’s a lot to like this year with an exciting QB and a ton of experience across the roster, although playable depth is certainly a concern in a few spots making the jumbled bye weeks even more worrisome when it comes to injuries. Chandler Rivers is one of the best defensive players in college football, but there’s question marks across the rest of the secondary. They’ll be tested early in week 2 against Luke Altmeyer and again in week 4 with NC State’s projected dangerous aerial attack, likely without Terry Moore in both. The good news is I only have one sure loss (at Clemson) and they have a pretty manageable road schedule outside of that. Because of that I think this is a bowl team at worst, with the potential to match last year’s 9-win total considering good health and if Mensah is able to play up close to his high price tag.
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