ACC Hoops Roundup (12/31/24)

Tyrese Proctor (5), Cooper Flagg (2), Khaman Maluach (9), Sion James (14)

Happy New Years Eve! With the turning of the calendar comes the real start of conference play, and boy was it the opposite of a November and December to remember. The start of the season brought optimism about squashing some narratives of the past few years, but instead a handful of the teams sparking that hope fell flat on their face. Maybe now that they get to play each other instead of the SEC, some teams will start to look better? But does it really matter at this point with the NET catastrophe they've created? Only 5 teams find themselves in the top 40, while 6 of the bottom 8 from P5 conferences reside in the ACC. The outlook for NCAA tournament bids is bleak, but let's take a look at where everyone stands headed in to January.

*Net Ranking in Parenthesis

NCAA Tournament Locks... As of Today

Duke (3), Pittsburgh (11), Clemson (36)

Let's start with the good news. Duke has lived up to the hype! The Cooper Flagg glazing has been nonstop for several years now so it's nice to see him actually look the part. He hasn't needed to be special yet, although he still leads one of the most talented teams in the country in points, rebounds, assists and blocks per game. But this team is much more than just Flagg. With Isaiah Evans' recent emergence as a sharpshooter, the Blue Devils are now a legit 9 deep with a great mix of young talent and experienced role players. Relying on true freshman isn't really the recipe anymore, but I think this version could be successful in March because of how well they defend.

Jeff Capel is off to his best start at 10-2 in his 7th season at Pitt. He's got one of the best guards in the conference in sophomore lefty Jaland Lowe who's already recorded a triple double this year. The Panthers have been playing without starting guard Damian Dunn since late November when he suffered an injury in the first few minutes of the Wisconsin loss. He was off to a really nice start and is expected back in the next week or 2. Home games against Cal and Stanford where they'll likely be heavy favorites could set up a massive matchup of 3-0 ACC teams at Duke next week, with a potential Dunn return?

Clemson isn't off to the same blistering start as last year, but at 10-3 (2-0) with wins over Kentucky and Penn State they're in great position. Ian Schieffelin is a stat stuffer averaging a double double and Chase Hunter is off to by far his best start in his 6th season, averaging 16.8 ppg and his shooting splits up across the board. The portal additions of Viktor Lahkin and Jaeden Zackery to replace PJ Hall and Joe Girard have been up to par so far. Funny enough their next two games are also at home against Cal and Stanford, just in reverse order, so they could have a jumpstart on the rest of the conference.

This list is shockingly small though, and a big reason why teams in the below tiers are going to have a tough time moving up. There's just not a lot of opportunities for Quad 1 wins.

Not Tournament Locks but in Decent Position

SMU (30) and North Carolina (39)

The roster Andy Enfield put together heading into his 1st season was intriguing and I thought they could be a dark horse in their inaugural ACC season... much like the football team. So far the returns have been positive, although lacking a big win. Their 2 losses have come on the road at Butler and a close loss at home to a really good Mississippi State team. They're led by a quartet of guards who can all shoot it, including intra-conference transfer Boopie Miller. A fast paced efficient offense mixed with a leaky defense. They allowed 80+ in their 2 losses, so figuring out how to get more stops against good teams will likely determine their success. A big "Welcome to the ACC" moment next Saturday when Duke comes to town.

North Carolina came into the season as the cream of the crop alongside Duke, the two expected national title contenders. It became pretty clear early on that only one of those was who we thought they were... and it wasn't Carolina. There's numerous issues with this team. Jalen Washington hasn't taken the jump many people thought that he would, resulting in the weakest interior we've seen from a Tar Heel team in a long, long time. Because of this, they've been forced to play to their strength and go small playing 4 guards 6'4" or shorter together more frequently. With a smaller roster you've got to make more outside shots, but so far they rank 232nd nationally in 3pt %. Lastly, Hubert Davis missed badly in the transfer portal. Cade Tyson is unplayable. Ty Claude can't crack the rotation. Ven-Allen Lubin should be a depth piece but is having to play serious minutes at the 5. All this to say... the comeback win last week against UCLA may have saved their season. They now own two really good wins and still have the talent to make a run in conference play.

Could Play Their Way on to the Bubble

Louisville (60)

You see the problem now? Going in to January there's basically 6 teams in an 18-team league that are either in or anywhere near the bubble. I had Louisville as my sleeper to get a double bye in the ACC tournament and they've been a mixed bag so far. Pat Kelsey's first team has been ravaged by injuries, losing Kasean Pryor and Koren Johnson for the year by Thanksgiving. Aboubacar Traore started the first two games before going down for nearly 2 months, just returning to action 3 days ago against Eastern Kentucky. Another big reason for the mixed results so far: 53.5% of their shots are 3s (3rd highest rate nationally) but they're making an ugly 29.9% of them (303rd). It becomes even more of a head scratcher when you take into account they rank top 40 in 2pt shooting %. Maybe alter philosophy a little and create more shots closer to the basket? Their next 4 games are home vs UNC, at UVA, home vs Clemson and at Pitt. We'll know on January 11th where the Cards stand with the bubble.

Teams That Need to Get Hot and Stay Hot

Stanford (85), Florida State (86), Notre Dame (92), Wake Forest (100), Virginia (102), NC State (103)

This where we really start to get into the rough patches. The common theme? Teams with some nice pieces but no wins of importance to date. This group is 2-16 in Q1 games. Yikes. Wake Forest came in to the season with high hopes and has the best win (Michigan), but they can't make shots, aren't as deep as we thought and have seriously underperformed. Maxime Raynaud is a 1st team All-ACC candidate for Stanford but a home loss to Cal Poly really sunk their metrics. The Markus Burton injury for Notre Dame pretty much ruined their non-conference. He's expected back at some point but no timeline has been provided.

NC State probably has the deepest and most talented roster here but 0-4 in Q1 games and didn't beat anyone in non-con ranked higher than 231 in the NET. Florida State is long, athletic and plays a ton of dudes like usual but again nothing to show for to this point. Jamir Watkins is really versatile though and Malique Ewin has started to come on strong in the post. Virginia is the least talented of this group but their style will keep them in a lot of games, this is just a Walmart version of the peak Tony Bennett era teams. Virginia and NC State actually tip off in about 2 hours in Charlottesville. The loser of that game is probably out for an at-large bid... which sounds crazy to say on New Year's Eve.

Need to Win the ACC Tournament

Cal (126), Syracuse (143), Georgia Tech (158), Miami (160), Virginia Tech (202), Boston College (212)

Lol I can't believe this list is 6 teams long (soon to be 7 once the NC State-UVA loser is added). We got our wish with Louisville improving and no longer being a metrics anchor. Except we traded it for the bottom falling out on 1/3 of the conference, actually leaving the conference in a worse position somehow. Can any of these teams actually go to Charlotte and win it all? The Cardiac Pack did it last year! Although that team was top 100 all year and had plenty of talent, but just couldn't put it all together for long stretches.

I was higher than most on Cal coming into the season and still like some of the pieces on the roster, but they plummeted in December going 1-4 including blowing a 16-point halftime lead at Mizzou and a home loss to Cornell. Miami has been a disaster forcing Grandpa Jim into retirement, but they still have talent and are primarily made up through the portal like NC State last year, so maybe they gel and figure it out late?

That's enough, I'm just rambling now. None of these teams are winning the ACC tourney and/or getting a bid to the Big Dance. Book it.